3VP
3 Vance Picks of the Game
Xavier Worthy — Over 5.5 Receptions
(+124 DK)
Model Projection: 6 receptions on 8–9 targets
≈60% true probability Edge: +8.7% EV at +124.
Mahomes has a new favorite target.
Worthy’s route share jumped to 90% last week and he’s cleared six catches in 7 of his last 10 full games. Jacksonville’s soft zone keeps leaving the flats open, and the Chiefs’ quick-hit offense feeds right into Worthy’s hands.
Trevor Lawrence — Under 11.5 Rushing Yards
(−105 FD)
Model Projection: 2 carries for 8 yards
≈64% true probability Edge: +10.5% EV at −105.
The Jags’ QB isn’t built for scrambling against a front like Kansas City’s. Chris Jones and George Karlaftis close pockets vertically — not wide — cutting off escape lanes. Lawrence has stayed under 12 yards in 3 of 4 games this year and posted just 9 yards vs KC last meeting.
Travis Etienne Jr. — Over 59.5 Rushing Yards
(−113 DK)
Model Projection: 15 carries for 72 yards
≈67% hit rate.
Etienne’s usage is bulletproof: 17+ touches every week and a 73% carry share inside the 20. KC ranks 22nd in rush EPA allowed and gives up 127 yards per game on the ground. Expect him to clear 60 without a sweat.
PARLAY
3VP
Xavier Worthy Over 5.5 Rec (+124)
Trevor Lawrence Under 11.5 Rush Yds (−105)
Chiefs ML (−198)
5P
Travis Etienne Over 59.5 Rush Yds (−113)
Mahomes Over 36.5 Pass Att (−115)
7P
Add Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 INT (−165)
Add Chiefs −3.5 Spread (−110)
